El Niño to Shape South Carolina's Fall 2026 Weather
El Niño to Shape South Carolina's Fall 2026 Weather
US · Published Aug 27, 2026
South Carolina is preparing for a fall season influenced by a strengthening El Niño, which NOAA predicts will bring warmer and wetter conditions to the region. The Old Farmer's Almanac, however, forecasts a cooler and drier fall, highlighting potential discrepancies in weather models. Historically, South Carolina transitions from summer highs in the 80s °F (26-30 °C) to fall averages in the mid-60s °F (18-20 °C) by November. NOAA projects above-normal temperatures and precipitation, while the Old Farmer's Almanac anticipates below-average rainfall and slightly cooler temperatures. The official last day of summer is September 21, with meteorological fall beginning earlier on September
El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, is expected to significantly impact jet stream patterns and weather across the Palmetto State.

Impact & Risks

Residents in South Carolina should anticipate lingering summer heat and increased rainfall during fall 2026, as NOAA forecasts above-normal temperatures and precipitation. This could lead to wetter conditions and potential disruptions to outdoor activities. Conversely, the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a cooler and drier season, which may reduce risks of flooding but could challenge agricultural planning. The strengthening El Niño, with a 90% chance of becoming a very strong event, underscores the need for vigilance as its impacts may vary across the state.

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