The presence of El Niño could be the reason why there may be fewer hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2026. According to historical data since 1960, El Niño, occurring between June and August, reduces the likelihood of storms in the Gulf to about 14%. This is primarily due to strong wind shear that disrupts storm formation. However, if El Niño develops later in the season, around August or after, there could still be a higher potential for storms earlier in the summer.