South India Awaits Northeast Monsoon Amid Rainfall Deficit
South India Awaits Northeast Monsoon Amid Rainfall Deficit
IN · Published Oct 7, 2026
• India experienced a significant rainfall deficit during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, with cumulative rainfall at 87% of the long-period average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). South Peninsular India, comprising Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, recorded only 76% of its LPA rainfall, amounting to 542.0 mm, marking the region's fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since
• The IMD attributes this deficit to strong El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures significantly above average. However, the IMD forecasts normal rainfall (88-112% of LPA) for South Peninsular India during the northeast monsoon season from October to December 2026.

Impact & Risks

The rainfall deficit has raised concerns for South Peninsular India, which heavily relies on monsoon rains for agriculture and water resources. The below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season could exacerbate water scarcity and impact crop yields in the region. Farmers and rural communities are particularly vulnerable, as they depend on consistent rainfall for irrigation and sustenance. The strong El Niño conditions may continue to influence weather patterns, potentially leading to further challenges in water availability and agricultural productivity.

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