India Faces Below-Normal Monsoon, Rice Production Set to Decline
India Faces Below-Normal Monsoon, Rice Production Set to Decline
IN · Published Nov 8, 2026
• India, the world's largest rice producer and exporter, has experienced 13% below-normal rainfall during the current monsoon season, according to government sources.
• This shortfall has raised concerns about rice production, which is expected to decline for the first time in a decade and by the largest margin in nearly 20 years.

Impact & Risks

The below-normal monsoon rainfall has significantly impacted rice production, threatening food security and potentially driving up prices. The government has already sold 2.5 million metric tonnes of rice to private buyers this year, compared to 1.1 million metric tonnes during the same period last year. The reduced rainfall during the crop maturation period is expected to cut yields, posing challenges for farmers and increasing the risk of hoarding and black marketing. This could lead to higher prices, affecting consumers and potentially straining the economy.

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