Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in Lower Mississippi Valley
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in Lower Mississippi Valley
US · Published Aug 27, 2026
• The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, valid from 01 UTC to 12 UTC on August 27,
• An upper-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes is pushing a cold front into Arkansas, with storms expected to develop along a boundary laid out by previous convection across Mississippi. Precipitable water values are forecast to reach 2.25 inches, with hourly rainfall rates potentially hitting 3 inches in areas where storm cells merge or train. Additional rainfall is expected across southern Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee as showers and thunderstorms sag southward. Radar trends and model guidance have led to adjustments in risk areas, including a southward shift in the Slight Risk zone in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Impact & Risks

The Slight Risk area includes parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, where heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. Urban areas and regions with poor drainage are particularly vulnerable. Hourly rainfall rates of up to 3 inches may overwhelm drainage systems, especially in areas where storm cells train or merge. Marginal Risk areas extend into the Southeast and Southern Plains, where localized impacts are possible but less severe.

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