El Niño and Saharan Dust Suppress Atlantic Hurricane Season
El Niño and Saharan Dust Suppress Atlantic Hurricane Season
US · Published Aug 18, 2026
The Atlantic hurricane season is experiencing historically low activity due to the combined effects of El Niño and Saharan dust. As of mid-August, only three named storms have formed, all of which were weak tropical systems. El Niño has intensified rapidly this summer, with Pacific Ocean temperatures reaching anomalies of up to 4°C above normal, altering global weather patterns and increasing wind shear over the Atlantic. Additionally, dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert is suppressing thunderstorm development, further limiting the potential for tropical storm formation. Forecasters predict fewer than 10 named storms this season, making it one of the quietest since
Despite the low activity, isolated intense storms remain possible, as seen in past El Niño years.

Impact & Risks

The reduced hurricane activity is a relief for coastal communities, but the risk of severe storms persists. El Niño years have historically produced intense hurricanes, such as Camille and Michael, despite unfavorable conditions. Tropical Storm Arthur, for example, caused record-breaking rainfall in Louisiana earlier this season. Coastal residents should remain vigilant, as even a single storm can lead to significant damage and flooding. The suppressed activity also impacts regions reliant on seasonal rainfall, such as West Africa, which is experiencing below-average monsoon activity.

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