NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
US · Published Aug 12, 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reaffirmed its prediction of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with a 75% likelihood of reduced activity. The forecast, updated from its initial May outlook, anticipates 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and up to 2 major hurricanes. This prediction accounts for the two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, that have already formed this season. NOAA attributes the expected decrease in activity to the strengthening El Niño conditions, which increase wind shear and hinder storm formation. Historically, a typical Atlantic hurricane season sees 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November
(Source: Rigzone, 2026-08-11 12:00:57 GMT)

Impact & Risks

The forecasted below-normal hurricane activity is expected to reduce the risk of severe weather events in the Atlantic basin, including fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes. However, NOAA emphasizes that even a single storm can have devastating impacts, as seen with Tropical Storm Arthur, which caused record rainfall and tornadoes along the Gulf Coast. The oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico has already experienced production losses due to Arthur and Bertha, with millions of barrels of oil and billions of cubic feet of gas affected. Residents and industries in hurricane-prone areas should remain vigilant as the season progresses.

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