Historic El Niño Likely to Amplify Extreme Weather
• The U.S. National Weather Service reports an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing by the end of 2026, potentially ranking among the largest since
• This natural climate phenomenon, characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to disrupt global weather patterns. A 'super El Niño' could exacerbate extreme weather events, including severe storms, droughts, and heatwaves, while also setting the stage for record global temperatures. The effects are expected to persist through spring 2027, with significant impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and human health.
Impact & Risks
A super El Niño could lead to severe droughts in regions like Australia, southern Africa, and parts of South America, while increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding in the southern U.S. and parts of Asia. The phenomenon is also likely to intensify heatwaves, contributing to record-breaking global temperatures. Vulnerable populations, particularly in regions prone to extreme weather, face heightened risks to health, livelihoods, and infrastructure.
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