California Braces for Potentially 'Very Strong' El Niño This Winter
California Braces for Potentially 'Very Strong' El Niño This Winter
US · Published Jul 10, 2026
A developing El Niño is forecast to become unusually powerful this winter, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicting a 75-81% chance of a 'very strong' event between November 2026 and January
This phenomenon, characterized by exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, could significantly impact California's rainy season. According to climate scientist Daniel Swain from the California Institute for Water Resources, a very strong El Niño greatly increases the likelihood of a wetter-than-average winter across most of California. However, due to climate change, more precipitation is expected to fall as rain rather than snow, particularly at higher elevations. This shift could complicate water storage and flood management efforts, as rainwater runs off more quickly than snowmelt, which traditionally provides a steady water supply during drier months. (Source time: not specified)

Impact & Risks

While a wetter winter may seem beneficial for California's water supply, the state's reservoirs are already at or above historical averages, with Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville at 100% and 113% of their historical averages, respectively. This leaves limited capacity to store additional water from potential heavy storms, increasing the risk of flooding. Additionally, a warmer winter could lead to more rain and less snow, reducing the long-term water storage provided by the Sierra Nevada snowpack. This scenario could result in rapid runoff, overwhelming rivers and reservoirs, and heightening the risk of flooding, particularly during atmospheric river events.

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