El Niño Could Bring 1983-Level Coastal Damage to California
• The developing El Niño for the 2026–2027 season is intensifying, with NOAA predicting a greater than 90% chance of reaching its highest strength category during fall and winter. Coastal water levels are already higher than in 1983, meaning storms this winter could send water farther inland, even without exceeding the wave heights of
• Successive storms are particularly concerning, as they prevent beaches from recovering, leading to increased erosion and flooding risks. NOAA forecasts wetter-than-normal conditions across California, with probabilities of 50–60% near the coast, but individual storm impacts remain uncertain. The risk of 1983-scale damage will depend on storm timing, wave direction, and other local factors (USC Viterbi, 2026).
Impact & Risks
Southern California's coastline faces heightened risks of erosion, flooding, and structural damage due to elevated sea levels and intensified storms. Vulnerable areas include beaches, coastal homes, and infrastructure, particularly if storms arrive in quick succession. The 1983 El Niño caused severe damage, including flooding in Venice and erosion that stripped eight feet of sand from public areas. Similar impacts could occur this winter, depending on storm patterns and wave dynamics (USC Viterbi, 2026).
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