Super El Niño Expected to Influence US Wildfire Risks
Super El Niño Expected to Influence US Wildfire Risks
US · Published Aug 26, 2026
A strong El Niño event is developing, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicting a greater than 90% chance of a 'very strong' El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026-
This phenomenon, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which can significantly alter global weather patterns. According to meteorologist Chad Merrill, this El Niño is expected to bring above-average precipitation to regions such as California, the Great Basin, the Southwest, the southern Plains, and parts of the Southeast and East Coast. However, northern areas like Montana, the Dakotas, and the Great Lakes may experience drier conditions, potentially increasing wildfire risks. The event is expected to strengthen through the end of 2026, with its effects possibly lingering into the summer of

Impact & Risks

The developing El Niño is likely to reduce wildfire risks in the southern and western United States due to increased precipitation. However, the northern regions, including Montana, the Dakotas, and the Great Lakes, may face heightened fire risks due to drier-than-average conditions. Central and South Florida could also see a temporary increase in fire risk until mid-October. Additionally, areas affected by intense heat and wildfires may face flash flood threats due to 'weather whiplash,' where heavy rainfall follows dry conditions. Burned soil in these regions could exacerbate flooding and debris flows, posing risks to residents and infrastructure.

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