Super El Niño May Bring Record-Wet Winter to California
Super El Niño May Bring Record-Wet Winter to California
US · Published Oct 28, 2026
• California is bracing for a potentially record-breaking wet winter due to the ongoing 'super' El Niño phenomenon. According to climate scientist Daniel Swain, there is a significant chance of record rainfall in Southern and Central California between January and March
• Sea surface temperatures along the California coast are currently 2-6°C above average, which could intensify winter storms by adding moisture. The European Copernicus climate service predicts a 13% chance of California experiencing its wettest winter on record. Atmospheric rivers, which transport moisture from the tropics, are expected to play a major role in this weather pattern. Additionally, king tides during November, December, and January could exacerbate coastal flooding, which has already caused significant damage in recent months.

Impact & Risks

The anticipated heavy rainfall and coastal flooding could lead to widespread damage in California. Historical data shows that strong El Niño events have caused significant flooding in the past, with risks now heightened by climate change. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable, with record-high sea levels already observed. The risk of flash flooding, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes is also elevated. A study co-authored by Swain suggests a 10% chance of a megastorm causing over $10 billion in damages this winter. Vulnerable populations, including those in low-lying areas, face disproportionate risks from flooding and infrastructure damage.

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