Super El Niño May Bring Record-Wet Winter to California
Super El Niño May Bring Record-Wet Winter to California
US · Published Oct 21, 2026
• California is bracing for what could be a record-breaking wet winter, driven by a combination of climate change and a super El Niño event (Yale Climate Connections, 2026).
• The state has already experienced its hottest year-to-date on record, and oceanic conditions, including a Kelvin wave transporting warm water from the tropics, have led to record-high sea surface temperatures along the California coast.

Impact & Risks

The anticipated record-wet winter could lead to severe flooding, particularly in Southern and Central California. Historical data shows that California has experienced catastrophic floods every 200 to 400 years, with the last major event occurring in 1861-62. Climate change has doubled the risk of such megastorms and tripled the likelihood of a trillion-dollar megaflood. Coastal areas are especially vulnerable, with record-high sea levels already causing damage during recent hurricanes. Upcoming king tides in November, December, and January are expected to exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding, even during calm weather. The combination of heavy rainfall, high sea levels, and king tides could result in widespread damage, particularly in under-resourced communities.

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