El Niño Expected to Bring Above-Normal Rainfall to California This Winter
El Niño Expected to Bring Above-Normal Rainfall to California This Winter
US · Published Aug 6, 2026
A powerful El Niño event is developing, with models predicting significantly above-normal precipitation for California from December 2026 through February
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects a 40% to 70% increase in rainfall along the California coast, with San Francisco potentially receiving over 20 inches of rain during this period. NOAA's Climate Forecast System and other models from Canada and Europe align in forecasting wetter-than-average conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are nearly 5°F (2.6°C) above normal as of August 5, 2026, the warmest on record for this time of year. This east-based El Niño is expected to drive stronger Pacific storms and higher coastal water levels, increasing the likelihood of flooding during king tides and windstorms.

Impact & Risks

The anticipated heavy rainfall could lead to flooding, particularly in low-lying and coastal areas. Elevated sea levels, projected to rise by up to a foot due to El Niño-warmed waters, may exacerbate coastal flooding risks. Warmer storm systems could push the snow line higher in the Sierra Nevada, reducing snowpack and impacting water storage. While the wetter conditions may alleviate drought concerns, they also pose risks of landslides and infrastructure strain. The possibility of a drier-than-normal winter remains low but cannot be entirely ruled out.

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