Central and South Jersey are at the highest risk for flash flooding and severe storms, with localized areas potentially receiving up to 4 inches of rain. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, while far southern New Jersey, including Ocean County, faces a low-level risk of isolated tornadoes. Northern parts of the tri-state area are less likely to experience severe weather, with lighter rainfall expected. Residents in flood-prone areas should remain vigilant, as flash flooding could occur rapidly during the heaviest downpours.