El Niño Expected to Bring Milder Winter to Chicago, NOAA Reports
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a milder-than-usual winter for Chicago due to a 'very strong' El Niño event, which has a greater than 90% chance of persisting through fall and winter
• El Niño, a climate phenomenon caused by warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, is expected to shift the Pacific jet stream southward, leading to warmer and drier conditions across the northern United States. For the meteorological winter (December through February), Chicago has a 40% to 50% chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures, with the city's average winter temperature typically around 28°F (-2°C). However, experts caution that this does not eliminate the possibility of snow or severe winter storms. Source time: 2026-09-02 18:42:58 GMT.
Impact & Risks
While a milder winter may seem appealing, experts warn that Chicago is not immune to snowstorms or extreme cold. Illinois state climatologist Trent Ford noted that El Niño winters can still bring severe weather events, including heavy snowfall and bitterly cold temperatures. Above-average temperatures in January and February could lead to more snow due to conditions hovering around the freezing point. Additionally, El Niño's global impacts include increased risks of wildfires in Australia and heavy rainfall in parts of the western U.S., which could lead to flooding.
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