India Faces Below-Normal Monsoon Amid El Niño Concerns
India Faces Below-Normal Monsoon Amid El Niño Concerns
IN · Published Sep 13, 2026
• India's 2026 southwest monsoon is running below normal, with a national rainfall deficit estimated in the mid-teens percentage range.
• The shortfall is particularly pronounced in East and North India, regions critical for rain-fed crops like spices and pulses.

Impact & Risks

The rainfall deficit poses a significant risk to agricultural productivity in East and North India, where many crops rely on rainwater. The potential for reduced yields could lead to tighter seed availability and increased prices for rain-sensitive crops like aniseed. This could have a cascading effect on the agricultural economy, particularly in rain-fed regions, where farmers may face reduced incomes. The broader agricultural market is also monitoring the situation closely, as any spike in the prices of other crops could influence planting and trade flows.

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