Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall Expected in Gujarat and Goa Due to El Niño
Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall Expected in Gujarat and Goa Due to El Niño
IN · Published Jun 13, 2026
India is bracing for a drier-than-usual monsoon season, with forecasts indicating below-average rainfall across much of the country during July, August, and September
According to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), regions such as Gujarat and Goa are at particular risk of significant rainfall deficits, with some areas potentially seeing shortfalls of 100-200 millimeters or more. The forecast attributes this trend to the strengthening of El Niño, a natural warming phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean known to disrupt global weather patterns. India's Meteorological Department (IMD) has also revised its seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of the long-term average, raising concerns for agriculture, water supplies, and daily life in a country heavily reliant on monsoon rains.

Why It's Important?

The anticipated below-normal rainfall could have widespread consequences for farmers, urban residents, and water resources. Rain-fed crops such as rice and pulses may suffer reduced yields, potentially driving up food prices. Urban areas, particularly in water-stressed regions, could face tighter water supplies as reservoirs struggle to refill. The agricultural sector, which supports millions of livelihoods, may need to adapt to irrigation challenges and consider less water-intensive crops. While some eastern and northern regions may fare better, the overall outlook suggests significant challenges for western and central India, including Gujarat and Goa.

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