Above-Normal Hurricane Season Predicted for Hawaii in 2026
Above-Normal Hurricane Season Predicted for Hawaii in 2026
US · Published Sep 23, 2026
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center has forecasted an above-normal hurricane season for Hawaii in 2026, with a 70% chance of increased activity. The season runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity expected in August and September. The prediction includes 5 to 13 tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, exceeding the average of 4 to
El Niño conditions, which weaken wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures, are driving this heightened activity. As of early July 2026, no named storms have formed in the Central Pacific, consistent with historically quieter early-season trends. Residents and visitors are advised to monitor updates from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center as the season progresses.

Impact & Risks

The forecasted increase in storm activity poses risks to Hawaii’s residents and visitors. Tropical cyclones can bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding, dangerous surf, and rip currents, even without direct landfall. Historical events, such as Hurricane Lane in 2018, have demonstrated the potential for significant rainfall and flooding during near-miss storms. Flight disruptions, cancellations of tourist activities, and damage to infrastructure are possible during active periods. Kaua‘i, the westernmost major island, remains the most exposed to direct hits due to its geographic position.

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