Global fossil fuel emissions projected to drop 0.4% in 2026 due to geopolitical disruptions
Global fossil fuel emissions projected to drop 0.4% in 2026 due to geopolitical disruptions
IN · Published Nov 12, 2026
• Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to decline by 0.4% in 2026, marking the first drop since
• This reduction, attributed to disruptions caused by the US-Iran war and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, will bring emissions to approximately 38.2 billion metric tons of CO

Impact & Risks

The geopolitical disruptions affecting oil and gas supply chains have led to increased reliance on coal and renewable energy sources in several nations. While the decline in emissions is encouraging, experts warn that reductions driven by wartime conditions are unsustainable. The report also notes that the remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C is now critically low, at 150 billion metric tons, which equates to less than four years of emissions at current rates.

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