NOAA Predicts Very Strong El Niño Event for Late 2026
NOAA Predicts Very Strong El Niño Event for Late 2026
IN · Published Aug 26, 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a very strong El Niño event for late 2026, with a greater than 90% probability of occurrence during the Northern Hemisphere's fall and winter seasons. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) is expected to reach at least +2.5°C during October to December, which would make it one of the strongest El Niño events on record since
El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterised by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, weakened trade winds, and significant shifts in global weather patterns. This event is anticipated to have widespread impacts on temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events globally.

Impact & Risks

The strengthening El Niño is expected to influence extreme weather patterns worldwide, including increased risks of floods, droughts, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones. Regions such as Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia may experience drier conditions, leading to water shortages and heightened wildfire risks. Conversely, areas like the southern United States could see increased rainfall and flooding due to a southward shift in the North Pacific jet stream. These changes may also disrupt agriculture, food security, and global economies, with potential long-term impacts on crop yields, water resources, and energy demands.

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