India Records Weakest Monsoon in 11 Years, 12.6% Below Normal
India Records Weakest Monsoon in 11 Years, 12.6% Below Normal
IN · Published Oct 14, 2026
• India's Meteorological Department reported that the cumulative monsoon rainfall for the June-September period was 12.6% below normal as of 30 September
• This marks the weakest monsoon performance in the last 11 years. The monsoon season, which typically runs from June through September, is critical for agriculture and water resources in India. The below-normal rainfall is attributed to the ongoing El Niño weather pattern, which has been linked to reduced precipitation in major sugar-producing regions, including India, Brazil, and Thailand. The El Niño phenomenon is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter and into the first quarter of 2027, potentially exacerbating weather-related challenges.

Impact & Risks

The below-normal monsoon rainfall poses significant risks to India's agricultural sector, particularly for crops like sugarcane that rely heavily on monsoon irrigation. India, being the world's second-largest sugar producer, may face reduced sugar output, impacting both domestic supply and export potential. Additionally, the weaker monsoon could lead to water shortages in reservoirs and groundwater systems, affecting drinking water availability and hydroelectric power generation. The ongoing El Niño pattern may further intensify these challenges, with potential drought conditions and temperature fluctuations in the coming months.

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