El Niño and Structural Challenges Threaten Indian Agriculture
El Niño and Structural Challenges Threaten Indian Agriculture
IN · Published Aug 2, 2026
• Agricultural sowing in India for the 2026 kharif season has been 2.9% lower compared to 2025, with coarse cereals and pulses seeing the largest declines, according to government data as of July
• This comes amid the declaration of 2026 as an El Niño year, which historically correlates with reduced monsoon rainfall and lower crop yields. A report by CareEdge Ratings highlights that El Niño years also tend to negatively impact agricultural and GDP growth. However, the report notes that the impact of rainfall variability on overall growth has diminished over the years due to increased irrigation coverage, which has risen from 17% in 1950-51 to 50% in 2023-24.

Impact & Risks

The reduced sowing area and potential for lower crop yields could significantly affect farmers' incomes and food security in India. Coarse cereals and pulses, which are staple crops, are particularly at risk. This could lead to increased food prices and strain on rural livelihoods. Additionally, the broader economy may experience slower growth due to agriculture's contribution to GDP, even though its share has decreased from 53% in 1950-51 to 17% in 2025-26.

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