El Niño Could Cause 15,800 Heat-Related Deaths in India by 2027
El Niño Could Cause 15,800 Heat-Related Deaths in India by 2027
IN · Published Sep 24, 2026
A study by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab projects that the upcoming El Niño season, expected to be unusually strong, could result in up to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally between June 2026 and February
India is projected to account for approximately 15,800 of these deaths, making it one of the most affected countries. The projection is based on climate and mortality modelling, which incorporates seasonal temperature forecasts and region-specific mortality data. El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon, is known to raise global temperatures and disrupt normal weather patterns, leading to increased risks of heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires in some regions while causing flooding in others.

Impact & Risks

The projected 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India highlight the severe impact of El Niño on vulnerable populations, particularly outdoor workers, older adults, and those without access to cooling systems. The Global South, including regions like the Sahel, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, is expected to bear the brunt of the global toll due to high baseline heat exposure and limited resources for adaptation. Without timely interventions, the health risks associated with extreme heat could escalate, disproportionately affecting lower-income communities and exacerbating existing inequalities.

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