India's rice production forecast to drop by 7 million tons due to weak monsoon
India's rice production forecast to drop by 7 million tons due to weak monsoon
IN · Published Oct 14, 2026
• India, the world's largest rice exporter, is facing its weakest monsoon since 2009, with rainfall approximately 15% below normal in 2026 due to El Niño.
• This has led to a forecasted decline in rice production for the marketing year 2026/27, dropping to 147 million tons from 154 million tons last season—a reduction of 7 million tons or 4.5%.

Impact & Risks

The decline in rice production could significantly impact global rice trade, as India accounts for over 40% of global rice exports. Reduced supplies and rising domestic prices may lead to higher global rice prices, particularly affecting countries in Asia and Africa that rely heavily on Indian shipments. If supply shortages worsen, the Indian government may impose additional export restrictions, further influencing international markets.

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