Historic El Niño Event Predicted to Peak by Winter 2026
Historic El Niño Event Predicted to Peak by Winter 2026
IN · Published Sep 15, 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that the ongoing El Niño event is intensifying rapidly, with a greater than 90% probability of becoming a 'very strong' event by winter
The Niño index for June-August reached 1.4°C, with key regions showing anomalies of 1.8-3.0°C above average. This El Niño is expected to peak between October and December 2026, potentially becoming the strongest since record-keeping began in

Impact & Risks

The intensifying El Niño poses significant risks to India, particularly in terms of its impact on the Southwest Monsoon and kharif crop yields. A monsoon deficit, combined with an already warmer growing season, could lead to reduced agricultural output. Additionally, marine heatwaves in the Indian Ocean, flagged by INCOIS, may stress fisheries and coral ecosystems, further affecting livelihoods dependent on these resources. Historical models used for drought preparedness and reservoir management may struggle to account for the compounded effects of this event, increasing the risk of inadequate response measures.

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