Improved Rainfall Forecasts for India Using IMERG-Calibrated IMDAA Reanalysis
• A new study published in the Hydrological Sciences Journal highlights advancements in rainfall forecasting for India. Researchers from NCMRWF and IIT Roorkee have developed a national-scale framework to improve monsoon rainfall predictions using IMERG-calibrated IMDAA reanalysis. The study evaluated four statistical bias-correction methods, including EQM and CDFt, which showed strong performance in reducing systematic rainfall biases. Calibration was conducted using data from 1998–2017, with validation performed for 2018–
• The corrections were applied to NCUM forecasts, enhancing the detection of heavy and very heavy rainfall at 1-, 3-, and 5-day lead times during the 2023 monsoon season.
Impact & Risks
The improved rainfall forecasts are expected to benefit flood-prone regions and enhance preparedness for extreme weather events during the monsoon season. By reducing biases in rainfall predictions, the study aims to provide more accurate guidance for disaster management and agricultural planning. However, performance varies across regions and lead times, indicating the need for further evaluation across additional monsoon seasons.
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