India Faces Severe Heatwave Risks Amid Super El Niño
India Faces Severe Heatwave Risks Amid Super El Niño
IN · Published Sep 24, 2026
• India is projected to experience severe heatwave conditions due to the ongoing Super El Niño phenomenon, with an estimated 15,800 heat-related deaths by February
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines a heatwave in plain regions as maximum temperatures reaching at least 40°C, with a departure of 4.5°C to 6.4°C from normal averages. Extreme heat events are expected to exacerbate socio-economic vulnerabilities, particularly affecting outdoor workers and those without access to cooling facilities. Sustained exposure to wet-bulb temperatures between 30.5°C and 31.5°C can induce severe metabolic heat stress, while core body temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F) can lead to fatal heat stroke.

Impact & Risks

The extreme heatwaves are likely to disrupt labour productivity, agricultural output, and utility infrastructure across India. Vulnerable populations, including informal sector workers such as construction labourers, street vendors, and delivery personnel, face heightened risks due to prolonged outdoor exposure. The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change reported that India lost approximately 191 billion potential labour hours in 2022 due to heat exposure, with the agricultural sector accounting for 64% of this loss. Without adequate interventions, the projected fatalities and economic losses could escalate significantly.

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