India Records Weakest Monsoon in 11 Years, Raising Concerns for Sugar Production
India Records Weakest Monsoon in 11 Years, Raising Concerns for Sugar Production
IN · Published Oct 13, 2026
• India's Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that the country's cumulative monsoon rainfall for the June-September period was 12.6% below normal as of 30 September 2026, marking the weakest monsoon in 11 years. This shortfall is significant as India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, relies heavily on monsoon rains for its agricultural output. The situation is further compounded by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, which has led to surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean being 4°C above normal as of September, the highest since
• The Japan Meteorological Agency has predicted a 100% chance of El Niño persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter and into the first quarter of 2027, potentially causing adverse weather conditions globally.

Impact & Risks

The below-normal monsoon rainfall in India is expected to impact sugar production, potentially leading to reduced yields. This could exacerbate global sugar supply constraints, as India is a key player in the global sugar market. The El Niño phenomenon is also likely to reduce rainfall in other major sugar-producing countries such as Brazil and Thailand, further tightening global sugar supplies. These factors have already contributed to a sharp rise in sugar prices, with global markets reacting to the anticipated production shortfalls. The situation poses risks to farmers and industries dependent on sugar production, as well as to consumers facing higher prices.

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