India Faces Driest Monsoon in 17 Years Due to El Niño
India Faces Driest Monsoon in 17 Years Due to El Niño
IN · Published Sep 19, 2026
India is experiencing its driest monsoon season in 17 years, with cumulative rainfall from June to September 15% below the long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The deficit is attributed to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which has disrupted precipitation patterns. Experts predict the seasonal shortfall may remain between 13% and 16%, making it the weakest monsoon since
A potential tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal during late September could bring relief to eastern and northeastern India, but it is unlikely to significantly alter the national rainfall deficit.

Impact & Risks

The reduced monsoon rainfall is expected to negatively impact crop yields, particularly for rice, sugarcane, and corn, which are already lagging behind last season's planting levels. This could exacerbate food inflation, which has risen for seven consecutive months, reaching 5.95% in August. The government has taken measures such as allowing duty-free sugar imports and subsidising onion prices to mitigate the impact of rising food costs. However, the prolonged shortfall may also affect the next crop cycle, further straining food supplies and prices.

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