El Niño Threatens Global Food Commodities
El Niño Threatens Global Food Commodities
US · Published Sep 16, 2026
The ongoing 'Godzilla' El Niño is significantly impacting global agricultural production, with sea surface temperatures rising by 3°C above average in September 2026 and forecasted to reach 4°C by November.
This extreme weather phenomenon is disrupting rainfall patterns worldwide, leading to droughts in key rice-producing countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam, while simultaneously creating wetter conditions in regions such as the southern United States and parts of Europe.

Impact & Risks

The 'Godzilla' El Niño is expected to cause a 14% fall in global agricultural production, valued at $342.2 billion over the next two years. Rice, a staple food for half the global population, faces significant risks due to its high water requirements and concentrated production in drought-stricken regions like India and Southeast Asia. Sugarcane production has already been curtailed in India, with export restrictions exacerbating global supply shortages. Coffee, cocoa, and palm oil crops are also vulnerable to weather shocks, particularly in regions like Ghana, Ivory Coast, Indonesia, and Malaysia. These disruptions could lead to higher food prices and increased pressure on global food systems.

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