India Faces 15% Monsoon Rainfall Deficit in 2026 Due to El Niño
India Faces 15% Monsoon Rainfall Deficit in 2026 Due to El Niño
India · Published Sep 16, 2026
India's Southwest Monsoon in 2026 has recorded a 15% rainfall deficit compared to the Long Period Average (LPA), as reported on 16 September
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributes this shortfall primarily to the development of El Niño conditions, which have weakened monsoon circulation and reduced moisture flow. Additional contributing factors include an unfavourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), fewer low-pressure systems, and prolonged dry spells during critical phases of the monsoon. Rainfall distribution has been uneven, with some regions experiencing heavy rainfall and others facing significant shortages. Central India fared relatively better, while Northwest India, East and Northeast India, and parts of the Southern Peninsula experienced below-normal rainfall.

Impact & Risks

The monsoon deficit is expected to have widespread implications for agriculture, water resources, and rural livelihoods. Uneven rainfall has exacerbated challenges, with some regions facing drought-like conditions while others deal with flooding. Key agricultural states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are among the worst affected, potentially impacting crop yields and food prices. The deficit also poses risks to water availability for irrigation and drinking purposes, particularly in regions heavily reliant on monsoon rains. Rural incomes and economic activities in affected areas are likely to suffer, further straining local economies.

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