India Records Weakest Monsoon in 11 Years, Raising Concerns for Sugar Production
India Records Weakest Monsoon in 11 Years, Raising Concerns for Sugar Production
India · Published Oct 22, 2026
• India's Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that the cumulative monsoon rainfall for the June-September 2026 season was 12.6% below normal, marking the weakest monsoon in 11 years. This shortfall is expected to impact agricultural production, particularly sugarcane, as India is the world's second-largest sugar producer. The situation is further compounded by a strong El Niño event, with the Japan Meteorological Agency reporting that tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were 4°C above normal in September 2026, the highest since
• The agency predicts a 100% chance of El Niño persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter and into Q1 2027, potentially curbing rainfall in major sugar-producing countries, including India, Brazil, and Thailand.

Impact & Risks

The below-normal monsoon has significant implications for India's agriculture, particularly for sugarcane production, which is heavily reliant on rainfall. Reduced rainfall could strain water resources, affecting crop yields and potentially leading to lower sugar output. This comes at a time when global sugar markets are already under pressure due to adverse weather conditions in other major producing countries like Brazil and Thailand. A global sugar deficit is anticipated for the 2026/27 season, which could lead to higher sugar prices and impact both domestic and international markets.

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