El Niño-Induced Drought to Slow India's Milk Production Growth to 2% in 2027
El Niño-Induced Drought to Slow India's Milk Production Growth to 2% in 2027
India · Published Oct 30, 2026
• India's milk production growth is projected to slow to 2% in 2027, reaching 226.5 million tonnes, according to the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS). This marks a decline from the estimated 2.5% growth in
• The slowdown is attributed to El Niño-induced drought conditions, which are expected to constrain feed and fodder availability, thereby affecting animal productivity. Butter production is forecast to grow by 2.2% to 7.6 million tonnes, while skimmed milk powder (SMP) output is expected to rise by 2.5% to 810,000 tonnes. However, tight domestic supplies and higher prices are likely to halve SMP exports to 7,000 tonnes in

Impact & Risks

The drought conditions are expected to significantly impact the availability of feed and fodder, leading to reduced animal productivity and slower growth in milk production. This could strain the supply of milk and dairy products, potentially driving up domestic prices. The reduced export capacity of skimmed milk powder may also affect India's position in the global dairy market. Smallholder farmers, who dominate India's dairy sector, may face economic challenges due to the reduced productivity of their livestock. Additionally, the drought could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in regions heavily reliant on agriculture and dairy farming.

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