El Niño May Lead to India's Driest Monsoon Since 2009
El Niño May Lead to India's Driest Monsoon Since 2009
IN · Published Sep 27, 2026
• The ongoing El Niño phenomenon is significantly altering global weather patterns, with India potentially facing its driest monsoon season since
• El Niño, characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, disrupts atmospheric circulation and shifts rainfall patterns worldwide. This year, the phenomenon has already caused reduced rainfall in regions like Indonesia and Australia, while increasing the risk of drought in India. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised concerns about the impact of this weather event on the country's monsoon, which is critical for agriculture and water resources. The report also highlights that El Niño can redistribute atmospheric heat and moisture, leading to extreme weather events such as floods in some regions and droughts in others.

Impact & Risks

India's agricultural sector, which heavily relies on monsoon rains, is at significant risk due to the potential for a drier-than-usual season. This could lead to reduced crop yields, impacting food supply and potentially driving up food inflation. Additionally, water scarcity may become a pressing issue in several regions, affecting both rural and urban populations. The combination of reduced rainfall and higher temperatures could also exacerbate heat stress and increase the risk of wildfires in vulnerable areas. These conditions may place additional pressure on water resources and the livelihoods of millions of people dependent on agriculture.

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