El Niño impacts India's monsoon, affecting Kharif crops
El Niño impacts India's monsoon, affecting Kharif crops
India · Published Sep 6, 2026
India's monsoon season has been marked by significant rainfall deficits, with East and Northeast India experiencing a 26% shortfall, South India 22%, and Northwest India 10% as of August 26,
The overall seasonal rainfall deficit stands at 13%, consistent with forecasts of a below-normal monsoon. June recorded a 35% deficit, making it one of the driest months in India's history, while July saw a slight surplus of 1%, driven by Central India. The uneven rainfall distribution has raised concerns about Kharif crop yields, particularly in rainfed regions. Key agricultural areas like Bihar, Marathwada, Vidarbha, and South Interior Karnataka have reported severe deficits, potentially impacting food grain production and farmer incomes.

Impact & Risks

The rainfall deficit poses risks to Kharif crops such as rice, sugarcane, and oilseeds, with a potential 5% reduction in food grain production. Farmers in rainfed regions face financial strain due to re-sowing and irrigation costs. Vulnerable districts with less than 25% irrigation coverage are at higher risk. The uneven rainfall could also lead to lower yields and quality, affecting food prices and consumer costs. Sugar prices have already surged, and the government has allowed duty-free imports to stabilise supply.

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