India Faces 12.6% Monsoon Deficit, Raising Inflation and Crop Concerns
India Faces 12.6% Monsoon Deficit, Raising Inflation and Crop Concerns
India · Published Oct 29, 2026
• India has experienced a 12.6% deficit in southwest monsoon rainfall, marking the widest shortfall in 11 years, according to a report by Morgan Stanley. This has led to a projected 3% year-on-year decline in kharif foodgrain production, while rabi sowing has started weakly with a 36.9% drop in acreage as of 23 October
• The report highlights that food inflation is expected to rise to 8.2% in the second half of FY27, compared to 5.3% in the first half. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is projected to increase the repo rate to 6.25% by April 2027 to manage inflationary pressures. The report also notes that wholesale price index (WPI) inflation reached 11.4% in September 2026, driven by elevated commodity prices and currency depreciation.

Impact & Risks

The monsoon deficit and subsequent decline in agricultural output are expected to significantly impact rural livelihoods and food prices. Farmers may face reduced incomes due to lower crop yields, while consumers could experience higher food costs. The report also warns of potential second-round inflationary effects, as higher producer costs may eventually be passed on to consumers. Additionally, the depreciation of the Indian rupee and rising crude oil prices could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, posing challenges to economic stability.

Related News