El Niño Likely to Cause Below-Average Monsoon Rainfall in India
El Niño Likely to Cause Below-Average Monsoon Rainfall in India
IN · Published Sep 17, 2026
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecasted significant impacts from the developing El Niño event, expected to peak in December
India and Southern Asia are likely to experience dry conditions and below-average monsoon rainfall during the summer monsoon season, which typically spans June to October. This El Niño event is predicted to be one of the strongest on record, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-east equatorial Pacific potentially rising by 2°C to 4°C above average. Such conditions are known to disrupt global weather patterns, including the monsoon systems critical to India’s agriculture and water resources. The effects of El Niño are expected to persist into early 2027, with global impacts on food systems and extreme weather events.

Impact & Risks

India's agriculture sector, heavily reliant on monsoon rainfall, faces significant risks due to the forecasted dry conditions. Reduced rainfall could lead to droughts, affecting crop yields and water availability. Key staples like rice and wheat may see lower production, potentially driving up food prices and exacerbating food security challenges. Additionally, the dry conditions could strain water resources, impacting both rural and urban populations. The broader impacts of El Niño may also heighten risks of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, which could further stress vulnerable communities and ecosystems.

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