El Niño Effect May Boost India's Coal Imports in October-December
El Niño Effect May Boost India's Coal Imports in October-December
IN · Published Sep 29, 2026
• India is expected to increase coal imports during the October-December period due to the combined effects of El Niño conditions and high electricity demand. El Niño has led to deficient rainfall, reducing hydro-power generation and increasing reliance on thermal power plants. Coal-fired generation has risen significantly, with power sector consumption reaching 77 million tonnes in August
• Domestic coal production is anticipated to recover in October, but it may not suffice to rebuild inventories quickly, necessitating higher imports. India imported 4.48 million tonnes of coal in August, marking a 28% year-on-year increase, although total shipments for April-August FY27 fell by 6%.

Impact & Risks

The reduced availability of hydro-power due to deficient rainfall is increasing India's dependence on coal, which could lead to higher emissions and environmental concerns. Industrial sectors such as pig iron, cement production, and direct reduction of iron are also driving coal consumption. Power plant inventories are forecast to drop to around 27 million tonnes, nearly half of last year's levels, raising concerns about supply security. Additionally, weaker domestic coal production may strain utility operations during peak electricity demand periods.

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