El Niño to Intensify Heatwaves in India, Projected to Cause 15,800 Excess Deaths
El Niño to Intensify Heatwaves in India, Projected to Cause 15,800 Excess Deaths
IN · Published Oct 2, 2026
• A strong El Niño event is expected to significantly intensify heatwaves across South and Southeast Asia, with India projected to experience around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths by February
• This projection is part of a global estimate of 451,000 excess deaths due to extreme heat, exacerbated by the ongoing impacts of climate change. The Climate Impact Lab has highlighted that the combination of El Niño and global warming will lead to more frequent and severe heat events, posing a significant public health challenge. The report underscores the urgent need for mitigation measures to address the rising risks associated with extreme heat.

Impact & Risks

The anticipated heatwaves could have severe consequences for public health in India, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and outdoor workers. The projected 15,800 excess deaths underline the critical need for immediate action to mitigate the impact of extreme heat. Prolonged exposure to high temperatures can lead to heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and other heat-related illnesses, which can be fatal if not addressed promptly. The situation is further exacerbated by the ongoing effects of climate change, which are expected to amplify the intensity and frequency of heatwaves in the region.

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