Below-Normal Monsoon Raises Concerns Over India's Rice Supply
Below-Normal Monsoon Raises Concerns Over India's Rice Supply
India · Published Sep 5, 2026
Rice prices have surged to over $15 per hundredweight, nearing their highest levels since September 2024, due to weather-related supply risks. Below-normal monsoon rains in India, one of the world's largest rice producers, have raised concerns about crop yields. India's milled rice production for 2026-27 has been revised down to 147 million tonnes, a decrease from 154 million tonnes in 2025-
Despite these challenges, Indian rice prices are expected to remain competitive as the government releases excess stock to stabilise the market. Higher shipping costs and stockpiling by some producers in anticipation of further price increases have also contributed to the elevated prices.

Impact & Risks

The below-normal monsoon has significantly impacted rice production in India, leading to a reduction in expected yields. This could affect food security and increase the cost of staple foods for millions of people in India and other countries dependent on Indian rice exports. The elevated prices may also strain household budgets and disrupt global rice markets. Additionally, higher shipping costs and stockpiling by producers could exacerbate supply shortages and price volatility.

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