El Niño Unlikely to Break Records, Says US Forecaster
El Niño Unlikely to Break Records, Says US Forecaster
JP · Published Nov 13, 2026
• The US Climate Prediction Center has revised its outlook on the current 'super' El Niño, indicating a reduced likelihood of it surpassing the record-breaking 1982-1983 event.
• The probability of this El Niño being stronger than the early 1980s event has dropped to 60%, down from an earlier estimate of 83%.

Impact & Risks

The ongoing El Niño has already led to severe weather impacts, including destructive Pacific typhoons and hurricanes that have caused damage to ports and coastal areas from Japan and Taiwan to California. Farmers in Southeast Asia, India, and parts of Africa are facing reduced rainfall, threatening agricultural yields. Additionally, Indonesia has experienced disruptive fires, although recent wet weather has provided some relief. A potential transition to La Niña in mid-2027 could heighten fire risks in regions like Southern California, where vegetation growth during the wet El Niño winter could fuel wildfires under hot, dry conditions.

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