Southwest Monsoon Arrives in Kerala After 3-Day Delay
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on June 4, 2026, three days later than its usual start date of June
• This marks the beginning of India's four-month rainy season, which is critical for Kharif crop sowing. The IMD had earlier predicted a May 26 onset date with a model error margin of ±4 days, making this only the second time since 2005 that the forecast was off. Despite the delay, the IMD clarified that the timing of the monsoon's arrival does not necessarily affect the total rainfall during the season. However, the department has warned of a 'below normal' monsoon this year, with a 60% probability of deficient rainfall due to the potential influence of El Niño. The monsoon has already advanced into parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and the Bay of Bengal, with further progress expected in the coming days.
Why It's Important?
The delayed monsoon onset could impact agricultural activities, particularly the sowing of Kharif crops such as paddy, maize, and pulses, which are heavily dependent on timely rainfall. The IMD's prediction of below-normal rainfall raises concerns about potential drought conditions, especially if the seasonal rainfall deficit exceeds 10%. Such a scenario could have significant implications for India's agricultural output and water resources, particularly in regions that rely on monsoon rains for irrigation. The year 2015, which also saw an incorrect monsoon onset forecast, experienced a 14% deficit in seasonal rainfall, leading to drought conditions.
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