Southwest Monsoon Arrives Late in Kerala, Raises Concerns Over Deficient Rainfall
• The southwest monsoon officially reached Kerala on June 4, three days later than its usual onset date of June 1, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This marks the first significant delay in the monsoon's arrival since
• The IMD has forecasted a seasonal rainfall of 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% probability of a deficient year. While the northeast region is expected to receive normal rainfall, other key agricultural zones, including the northwest, central India, and the monsoon core zone, are likely to experience below-average precipitation. The delay in monsoon onset and the potential for uneven rainfall distribution could significantly impact India's rain-fed agriculture, which is critical for the country's food security.
Why It's Important?
The delayed monsoon and forecasted below-normal rainfall pose risks to India's agricultural sector, particularly in regions dependent on rain-fed farming. Crops such as paddy, maize, and pulses may face water stress due to prolonged dry spells. Additionally, the anticipated El Niño conditions could exacerbate the situation, as 60% of El Niño years since 1951 have resulted in deficient rainfall. The combination of a weak monsoon and existing challenges, such as disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies, could lead to reduced crop yields and increased food prices, affecting both farmers and consumers.
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