Super El Niño Could Intensify India's Uneven Monsoon Patterns
• India is currently experiencing a paradoxical monsoon season, with overall rainfall below average but severe localised flooding and landslides in some regions. For instance, Kerala has faced devastating floods despite receiving 22% less rainfall than normal between June 1 and August 5,
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier forecasted a weaker monsoon season, predicting June-September rainfall at 92% of the long-term average, partly due to the anticipated development of El Niño. By mid-June, rainfall was 40% below normal, but active monsoon spells reduced the deficit to 12% below average by early August. El Niño, a warming phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, is rapidly strengthening and could become exceptionally strong, potentially influencing the monsoon further.
Impact & Risks
The uneven monsoon has already caused significant damage, particularly in Kerala, where intense rainfall from July 30 to August 5, 2026, led to severe flooding and landslides, resulting in 26 fatalities. Among the victims were a mother and son in Kottayam, whose home was buried by a landslide. While El Niño is often linked to weaker monsoons, it can also intensify extreme daily rainfall, as seen in Kerala. This pattern poses risks of both drought and sudden, severe flooding, especially in central-eastern India and the southwest coast.
Related News