Kerala Faces Rainfall Deficit, Early Summer Conditions Likely
Kerala Faces Rainfall Deficit, Early Summer Conditions Likely
IN · Published Sep 1, 2026
• Kerala is experiencing a significant rainfall deficit during the southwest monsoon season, with precipitation 22% below normal as of September 1,
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall for September, raising concerns about the monsoon ending with a substantial shortfall. The strengthening El Niño and weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are contributing factors, potentially impacting the upcoming northeast monsoon as well. Rainfall deficits are particularly severe in Wayanad and Idukki, with 51% and 44% shortfalls, respectively. These districts are critical for Kerala's water and power reservoirs, making the situation concerning. Southern Kerala may see isolated heavy showers during the monsoon's retreating phase if weather systems develop over the Bay of Bengal.

Impact & Risks

The rainfall deficit is affecting eight of Kerala's 14 districts, with Wayanad and Idukki facing the most severe shortfalls. These districts are vital for the State's water and power supply, and prolonged deficits could lead to challenges in resource availability. The lack of key rain-enhancing factors, such as active offshore troughs and strong westerlies, further diminishes the likelihood of a monsoon revival. Early summer-like conditions may emerge, potentially impacting agriculture, water resources, and energy generation in the region.

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