El Niño to Reduce Cyclone Activity in Southwest Indian Ocean
El Niño to Reduce Cyclone Activity in Southwest Indian Ocean
MG · Published Nov 5, 2026
• The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and Météo-France La Réunion have forecast below-average tropical cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean for the 2026-2027 season. This is attributed to a strong El Niño event, expected to peak in November or December 2026 and persist into early
• The season is predicted to have 6 to 10 named storms, including 3 to 5 tropical cyclones, compared to an average of 10 named storms and 5 cyclones. The negative Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole is also influencing reduced cyclone formation. Despite the quieter season, individual cyclones could still cause significant impacts, particularly on islands. Rainfall patterns are expected to vary, with above-normal rainfall in northern Madagascar, Comoros, Seychelles, and Tanzania, while southern Madagascar and Mozambique may experience below-normal rainfall.

Impact & Risks

Reduced cyclone activity may lower the risk of widespread damage in the South-West Indian Ocean region. However, isolated cyclonic events could still pose significant threats, especially to island communities. Variations in rainfall could impact agriculture and water resources, with above-normal rainfall potentially causing flooding in northern Madagascar, Comoros, and Tanzania, while below-normal rainfall in southern Madagascar and Mozambique may lead to drought conditions. Disaster management agencies are advised to remain vigilant despite the quieter season.

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