Record-Breaking El Niño Predicted for Mendocino County
Record-Breaking El Niño Predicted for Mendocino County
US · Published Sep 22, 2026
Mendocino County is bracing for what could be the strongest El Niño event on record, according to University of California climate scientist Daniel Swain.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has placed the odds of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter at over 90%, with sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific running more than 5°F (2.8°C) above normal.

Impact & Risks

The anticipated wetter-than-average winter could lead to flooding in Mendocino County, particularly in flood-prone areas like the Russian River and its tributaries. While not all above-average rainfall results in severe flooding, the risk of at least one extremely wet month is high. Coastal areas face additional challenges, as El Niño is expected to raise sea levels by 1-2 feet (30-60 cm), doubling the impact of climate change-related sea level rise. This could lead to flooding in low-lying areas near estuaries and river mouths. The warming ocean temperatures may also disrupt marine ecosystems, affecting fisheries and local biodiversity.

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