The strengthening El Niño poses risks of below-normal monsoon rainfall across India, potentially impacting agriculture and water resources. However, the development of a positive IOD could offset these risks, particularly in south peninsular India, which has already experienced a high rainfall deficit. Improved rainfall conditions could benefit farmers and reduce the likelihood of water shortages. The interplay between El Niño and IOD remains a critical factor in determining the overall monsoon performance and its impact on the country.