Super El Nino Could Cause 450,000 Deaths Globally
Super El Nino Could Cause 450,000 Deaths Globally
NG · Published Sep 24, 2026
A powerful 'super El Nino' event is currently underway, with its effects expected to last from June 2026 through February
According to a report by the Climate Impact Lab (CIL), this phenomenon could result in approximately 451,000 excess heat-related deaths worldwide compared to an average year. The event is characterized by ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rising to at least 2.7°C (4.9°F) above average, with forecasts suggesting it could peak at 4°C (7.2°F) later this year. The report highlights that the Global South, including countries like Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan, will bear the brunt of the impacts. Researchers attribute the severity of this El Nino to strong winds from Indonesia transporting warm water eastward, exacerbated by climate change. The event is described as a 'postcard from the future,' offering a glimpse of the new normal in a warming world.

Impact & Risks

The Global South is expected to face the most severe consequences, with Nigeria projected to experience 31,400 excess deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600. The Sahel region in Africa, Southeast Asia, and parts of Central and South America are also at high risk. The report warns of increased extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and disruptions to global food supplies due to altered rainfall patterns. While the Global North has stronger institutions to mitigate these impacts, poorer nations with weaker infrastructure are more vulnerable. The death toll could rise further if the El Nino extends into 2027, particularly affecting regions like India and Pakistan during their summer months.

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